In a surprising turn of events, the number of Indian students travelling to the United States for higher studies this year has dropped drastically. According to data released by the US Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration, only 41,540 Indian students arrived in the US on student visas (F and M categories) in August 2025, marking a 44% decline compared to the same period last year. This represents the lowest August intake since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, when global travel restrictions had almost halted international student movement altogether.
In the years following the pandemic, Indian student migration to the US had witnessed an impressive recovery. In 2021, the number of Indian students arriving in August stood at around 56,000, which rose sharply to 80,486 in 2022 and reached a record 93,833 in 2023. However, the 2025 figure shows a severe reversal of that growth, falling back to nearly half of last year’s numbers. This sudden fall has raised alarms among universities and education consultants who had been expecting continued growth based on recent trends.
Experts have pointed to several possible causes behind this sharp decline. Delays and backlogs in US visa processing have been cited as a major reason, especially in popular cities like Delhi and Mumbai where interview appointments were hard to obtain. The rising cost of living in the US, the strengthening of the dollar, and high tuition fees have also discouraged many Indian families from sending their children abroad. Additionally, growing competition from countries such as Canada, the UK, and Australia — which offer easier visa pathways and post-study work opportunities — has diverted a large share of students who traditionally looked toward the US.
While Indian student arrivals have dropped significantly, Chinese student inflows to the US have remained higher despite their own moderate decline. In August 2025, around 86,647 Chinese students (excluding Hong Kong) arrived in the US — more than double the Indian figure. However, even China saw a small reduction compared to 98,867 students in August 2024. The total number of international students arriving in the US during June to August 2025 stood at 3.13 lakh, which is 19% lower than the same period last year.
Before the pandemic, Indian student arrivals in the US had been stable during the Obama years, averaging around 49,000 to 50,000 per August between 2015 and 2017. The numbers dipped slightly during Donald Trump’s presidency, falling to 44,000 in 2017 and hovering around 40,000–41,000 in 2018–2019, largely due to stricter immigration policies and uncertainty over H-1B work visa extensions. After 2020, when Covid hit global travel, numbers collapsed but later surged again as American universities reopened and remote learning ended. The peak in 2023 symbolized India’s rise as the largest source of international students in the US, surpassing even China.
Month-by-month data from 2025 further illustrates how steep the decline has been. In June, Indian arrivals dropped to 8,545, down from 14,418 a year earlier. In July, the figure was 13,027, compared to 24,298 in 2024. By August, the total had reached 41,540, bringing the combined number for all three months to 63,112, the lowest summer intake since the pandemic years. These figures reveal that the problem was not just limited to one month but reflected a consistent fall throughout the summer season.
Education experts warn that this decline may not be a temporary blip but part of a larger shift in global education patterns. Many Indian students are now opting for countries where education costs are lower and visa processes are faster. European nations like Germany and Ireland, and even some Asian destinations like Singapore and South Korea, have become increasingly attractive. Analysts also believe that India’s own growing higher education sector and online international programs have slightly reduced the urgency for overseas degrees among certain segments of students.
For American universities, this sudden fall in Indian enrollments has serious implications. Indian students form a large share of graduate and STEM programs in the US, contributing billions of dollars to the American economy each year. A sustained decline could affect research programs, diversity goals, and university finances. For India, however, this trend revives the long-standing discussion around “brain drain” and whether more must be done to improve the quality of education and employment opportunities within the country itself.
Whether this decline is just a one-year anomaly or an early sign of long-term change remains to be seen. The data, however, has clearly raised questions for both governments. The US must review its visa policy, affordability issues, and safety concerns, while India needs to evaluate why so many of its brightest minds still feel compelled to study abroad despite the rising costs. If 2023 represented the height of India’s global academic presence, then 2025 serves as a wake-up call — reminding both nations that global education trends can shift quickly when economic and policy conditions change.