The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), issued monthly by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), is one of the most authoritative global outlook reports on food and agriculture. It provides a comprehensive assessment of supply, demand, trade, and price projections for major crops and livestock. The September 2025 edition (WASDE-664) highlights key updates across major commodities.
Wheat
For the United States, supplies and domestic use remain unchanged, but exports are projected higher at 900 million bushels (up 25 million). This reflects strong demand for Hard Red Winter wheat. Ending stocks are lowered to 844 million bushels, slightly below last year. The average farm price is forecast at $5.10 per bushel, down $0.20 from last month.
Globally, supplies rise to 1,078.6 million tons, supported by higher production in Australia, the EU, and Russia. Consumption is projected at 814.5 million tons, with trade reaching 214.7 million tons. Global ending stocks increase to 264.1 million tons, primarily due to larger reserves in major exporting countries.
Coarse Grains (Corn, Barley, Sorghum, Oats)
U.S. corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, the largest since the 1930s in terms of acreage. Despite slightly lower yields (186.7 bu/acre), expanded harvested area boosts output. Exports are raised to a record 3.0 billion bushels, reflecting competitiveness in world markets. Ending stocks are estimated at 2.1 billion bushels, with farm prices steady at $3.90 per bushel.
Worldwide coarse grain production is projected at 1.573 billion tons. Foreign corn output declines in the EU, Serbia, and Russia but rises in India and Canada. Barley output increases in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Global corn stocks fall slightly to 281.4 million tons.
Rice
The U.S. rice sector faces larger supplies but weaker demand. Total production is raised marginally to 208.8 million cwt, but exports are reduced to 94 million cwt due to uncompetitive pricing. Ending stocks climb sharply to 53.4 million cwt, the largest since the late 1980s. The farm price drops to $13.20 per cwt.
Globally, rice supplies reach a record 729.5 million tons, driven by higher beginning stocks. Consumption rises to 542.2 million tons, with ending stocks at 187.3 million tons, boosted by reserves in Pakistan and the U.S.
Oilseeds (Soybeans and Others)
U.S. soybean production is pegged at 4.3 billion bushels. Crush demand is increased on strong soybean meal exports, but overall soybean exports are trimmed due to competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks rise to 300 million bushels. The farm price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel.
Globally, oilseed output is projected at 691.6 million tons, slightly higher on stronger rapeseed and sunflowerseed harvests. Soybean production, however, is reduced for India, the EU, and Serbia, though higher in the U.S. and Russia. World soybean stocks decline to 124.0 million tons.
Sugar
U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is cut to 14.1 million short tons, mainly due to reduced imports from Mexico, though beet sugar output is raised slightly. Ending stocks fall, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 16.2 percent.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
The outlook for red meat and poultry is mixed. Beef and pork production decline, while broiler and egg production rise. Cattle and hog prices are forecast higher in late 2025 and into 2026, while broiler prices weaken. Dairy production expands on higher cow numbers and productivity. However, increased supply pressures prices, with the all-milk price forecast at $21.35/cwt in 2025 and $20.40/cwt in 2026.
Cotton
U.S. cotton output is projected at 13.2 million bales, slightly higher than last month. Exports remain at 12 million bales, with ending stocks steady at 3.6 million bales. The farm price is forecast at 64 cents per pound.
Globally, production rises due to larger crops in China, India, and Australia. World consumption is nearly 119 million bales, with ending stocks reduced to 73.1 million bales, the lowest in four years.
The September 2025 WASDE report underscores the dynamic nature of global agriculture. While strong export demand is boosting U.S. corn and wheat, other commodities like rice and soybeans face competitive pressures. Livestock and dairy markets continue to adjust to shifting supply-demand balances, while cotton markets are stabilizing with modest growth in consumption. Overall, the report paints a picture of abundant global food supplies but continued price volatility, influenced by weather, trade flows, and international competition
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