For decades, the dream of settling in Canada or the United States has been woven into the fabric of Punjab’s aspirations. Families sold ancestral land, borrowed heavily from relatives, and invested their life savings—sometimes upwards of Rs 30-40 lakh—to send their children abroad. The promise was simple: sacrifice now, prosper forever. But in 2024 and 2025, that dream is crumbling, and the reverberations are being felt across Punjab’s villages, cities, and the sprawling immigration centres that once thrived on hope.
The transformation began with sweeping policy changes by Ottawa, starting with the doubling of the Guaranteed Investment Certificate amount for international students from CAD 10,000 to CAD 20,635 in January 2024. This was followed by a 10 per cent cap on student permit visas for two years, closure of the Student Direct Stream programme, and stricter rules for study permits, work permits and postgraduate pathways.
Canada announced that immigrant intake would be reduced from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025. Punjabis’ PR dreams bruised as Canada cuts intake numbers – The Tribune. More recently, in March 2025, Canada removed the bonus Comprehensive Ranking System points for arranged employment under the Express Entry program, which had previously awarded 200 points for senior-level positions. Canada Closes the Preferential Window: What this Means for Aspiring Punjabis..
These changes led to a 31 per cent drop in study permits for Indian students in the first quarter of 2025, with students now required to prove access to approximately ₹12.7 lakh to cover living expenses, in addition to tuition and travel costs. Canada Slashes Indian Student Visas By 31% In 2025.
The impact on Punjab’s immigration industry has been devastating. Immigration centres across the state have reported an 80 per cent drop in Canada-related enquiries, forcing many offices to close or slash their workforce by nearly 30 per cent. Rise and fall of the Canadian dream – Career Mosaic in Jalandhar reported a 70 per cent drop in Canadian enrollments since 2021, with further declines expected by 2025. In the Malwa region, particularly Bathinda’s Ajit Road—once a thriving hub with over 200 immigration centres—the IELTS coaching volume has dropped by almost 80 per cent, while visa processing service requirements have reduced by 60-70 per cent.
The cost of moving to Canada has skyrocketed from Rs 22-23 lakh to Rs 37 lakh since the policy revisions . For many families, this represents not just a financial burden but a crushing blow to dreams already in motion. One Bathinda resident reported spending over Rs 5 lakh on application preparation, only to face historically high rejection rates .Perhaps even more troubling than the closed doors for aspiring migrants is the situation facing those already in Canada. Students who went to Canada with dreams of permanent residency are finding those dreams no longer exist, with work permits expiring and pathways to PR becoming increasingly restricted India-Canada row.
The projected decline in Indian students translates to a CAD 10.5 billion shortfall in economic contributions compared to 2023, with provinces like Ontario seeing empty classroom seats, reduced housing demand, and workforce gaps Sharp Plunge in Indian International Students in Canada in 2025 – ICC Immigration Inc. But for the students themselves, the personal cost is far greater. Desperation has given birth to a dangerous new phenomenon. With around 1 million immigrants overstaying in Canada, many are attempting what’s known as “the game”—illegally crossing into the United States, hoping to file asylum applications and secure work permits .
Agents advertising on TikTok charge between $4,000-$8,000 per person to guide asylum-seekers across the US border, offering services including detention assistance and immigration attorney connect. US Customs and Border Protection data shows 43,764 individuals have crossed the Northern Land border, with 36,379 being single .
The twisted logic is clear: while Canada processes asylum applications within 77 days, the US backlog means asylum-seekers can remain and work for years before their cases are resolved. For those whose Canadian dreams have died, America becomes the last, desperate gamble. The reasons for this dramatic shift are multifaceted. Canada’s rapid immigration expansion during the COVID-19 pandemic led to unsustainable growth. By 2024, people of Indian origin made up nearly 30 percent of new permanent residents in Canada, the largest share, contributing to an undercurrent of anti-Indian sentiment .
Housing shortages, rising living costs, and growing social tensions forced the Canadian government to slam the brakes. The unregulated growth of private colleges offering questionable credentials, combined with immigration agents making unrealistic promises, created a system ripe for collapse.
As Canada’s doors close, students are looking elsewhere. Germany, France, and Ireland are emerging as alternatives, offering more transparent and welcoming policies . Some education consultants report growing interest in Australia, Switzerland, and even countries like Austria and Portugal.But there’s a fundamental difference: these alternatives aren’t selling a dream of permanent settlement in quite the same way Canada once did. They’re offering education and temporary work opportunities, but the grand promise of citizenship and a new homeland—the promise that made families mortgage their futures—is largely absent.
What’s happening goes beyond policy changes or economic shifts. It represents a cultural reckoning for Punjab. For generations, “foreign-returned” status conferred prestige. A job in Canada or the USA was worth more than any achievement at home. Young men (and increasingly, women) were judged not by their accomplishments in India but by their visa status.This created a toxic ecosystem where education became merely a pathway to emigration, where legitimate study was secondary to securing a work permit, and where the primary goal wasn’t learning but leaving. Immigration agents became more influential than school counselors. IELTS scores mattered more than university marks.
Now, as offices shutter and agents disappear, families are left holding debts and dashed hopes. Villages that sent dozens of children abroad are seeing them return, or worse, stuck in limbo—unable to come back due to the shame of failure, unable to move forward due to policy barriers. The immediate future looks bleak for aspiring migrants. Some experts suggest the uncertainty may persist until at least January 2026 . The United States, long viewed as the ultimate destination, has become even more difficult to access through legal channels, making the dangerous “game” seem like the only option for the desperate.For Punjab, the question is whether this represents a permanent shift or merely a pause. Will a new generation discover that opportunities exist at home? Or will they simply find new dreams to chase, new countries promising what Canada no longer does?
The infrastructure of the dream industry—the coaching centers, the consultancies, the document preparation services—is crumbling. But the deeper infrastructure, the cultural belief that success means leaving, that a foreign passport is worth any sacrifice, will take much longer to dismantle.
For now, the highways from Punjab to YVR and JFK are less crowded. The dreams of young Punjabi boys and girls for Canada and the USA aren’t completely over, but they’re fundamentally transformed. The easy path has closed. What remains requires more money, better credentials, and perhaps most importantly, a willingness to accept that the dream may not materialize at all.
In villages across Punjab, families are having difficult conversations. Was it worth it? Should the next child try? Is there a future here, or must we still look abroad? The answers are no longer obvious, and that uncertainty may be the most profound change of all.