The November 11 by-election in Tarn Taran is no ordinary contest. With barely a year and a few months left before Punjab goes to the polls again, this race is being seen as a semi-final for the 2027 Assembly elections, a thermometer of public sentiment and political direction in the Majha region.
In 2022, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) swept Punjab, winning 92 of 117 seats with 42.01 percent of the vote share. In Tarn Taran, its candidate Kashmir Singh Sohal polled 40.45 percent, defeating Shiromani Akali Dal’s Harmeet Singh Sandhu with 30.06 percent. Those numbers had confirmed AAP’s ascendancy — but two years later, Punjab’s political map looks very different.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Amritpal Singh (Waris Punjab De), contesting as an independent from Khadoor Sahib (which includes Tarn Taran), stunned all major parties by winning 404,430 votes (38.62 percent), while Congress secured 207,310 votes (19.8 percent) and AAP 194,836 (18.6 percent). In the Tarn Taran assembly segment alone, Amritpal drew 44,703 votes, signalling a sharp rise in Panthic and regional identity politics that cut across party lines.
Now, in this bypoll, AAP is fighting to defend its ground, deploying every weapon of “Saam, Daam, Dhand, Bhed” — persuasion, inducement, pressure, and strategy. Ministers, MLAs, and campaign strategists have turned Tarn Taran into a prestige battlefield. But even if AAP wins, it would amount only to just a moral victory, not a resounding mandate. Many voters quietly admit they fear the weight of government machinery — and with just few months to go before 2027, few wish to risk open defiance of the ruling party.
The Congress, by contrast, appears to be its own worst enemy. A series of self-inflicted wounds, goof ups, and factional fights have turned what could have been a close second-place finish into a collapse. As one observer put it, “Congress’s loss is the Akali Dal’s gain” — with SAD quietly regaining its rural footing and reclaiming traditional Congress voters alienated by chaos. With over 34 percent Scheduled Caste population in the constituency, the damage is deep.
Is former Member of Punjab Public Service Commission
A farmer and keen observer of current affairs
Even the BJP has blundered. By raking up the Punjab University autonomy issue at this stage, the party hit its own foot — sending a wrong message that it remains disconnected from Punjab’s sensitivities about identity and federal rights.
And yet, beyond parties, voters face a moral dilemma. Each candidate carries baggage: one a turncoat, another with family links to a murder case, a third tainted by a legacy of drug trafficking, and another seen as too close to gangsters. Ordinary people ask: “If everyone’s record is murky, who do we trust? Is it a choice between the lesser evil?”
That question lies at the heart of Tarn Taran’s bypoll. If AAP retains the seat, it will claim continuity — not necessarily people’s approval. But if Bhai Mandeep Singh Khalsa, the Panthic candidate, prevails, the result could reshape Punjab’s political landscape, reviving regional identity and signalling a return of issue-based politics over power-based manipulation.
If Tarn Taran is Punjab’s political thermometer, then reading this week will reveal where the state’s pulse truly lies before the 2027 showdow