New ICE detention data came out yesterday, taking us through the last day of November. The total number of people detained on a single day increased to 65,735, up from 65,135 on November 16. Although single-day numbers might exceed these between data releases (e.g., on any day from November 17 through. November 29), these are the highest verifiable numbers on public record. With some possible one-time exceptions, we are likely to continue to see biweekly record-breaking numbers going forward, so I’m not sure how many different ways I can write about breaking numbers every other week. This is the country we live in now.
Since late September, the largest group in detention who were arrested by ICE detention are people with only immigration violations and no criminal record. This data runs contrary to the administration’s claims about focusing on violent criminal offenders, a narrative that they try to squirm out of every time they are presented with this data by saying, “oh, well, we’ll arrest everyone who has a violation.” Fine, but then just say that. The only reason to make outrageous claims that defy the agency’s own data is because they know that if they shared a properly proportioned set of stories of who they are arresting, it would be even more unpopular than it already is.
In short, it’s propaganda. It’s not entirely unique to the Trump administration; propaganda has been essential to legitimizing deportation throughout the long history of immigration enforcement under Republicans and Democrats (as the Mapping Deportation project shows). If the administration posted a representative sample of people arrested on their website and social media pages, sure, some would be violent criminal offenders and also a bunch would be moms driving to pick up their kids from school, construction workers picking up lumber at Home Depot, or a staff member inside a day care center (yes, these are all real examples).
It’s a tactical choice to represent only a politically motivated selection of people arrested and detained. In isolation, it is not untrue that ICE is also arresting some people who represent public safety concerns (whether deportation is the appropriate solution is another question). But it is misleading. From a basic sociological perspective, if police arrest 10 people one month and 100 people the next month, they will inevitably arrest some number of people with criminal histories or outstanding warrants.
Does that mean that the American public endorses police rounding everyone up just so that they can be screened for these histories? The public has never endorsed that, and those who claim to endorse this online are the first and the loudest to complain about “deep state” and “big government” the first time that they themselves are investigated for fraud, corruption, or called out for their own criminal histories.
There is another reason why I highlight these data, and this reason is more technical than political. Based on years of research, I can tell you that the criminal history of people in detention shapes their trajectory through the deportation process, from whether they can get a bond hearing or a bond, to eligibility for various forms of relief, to how they will be treated in detention (e.g., based on threat level assessments). And, of course, remaining in detention is, itself, a major determining factor over whether one gets access to legal representation, which is, then, also a major determining factor in due process and final outcomes. So even if you don’t agree with my interpretation of the data relative to the debate over political (mis)representation, this still helps us track what cases look like inside of detention.
How has the growth in “other immigration violators” shaped the detention system? Simply put, there are far more people in detention today than at the start of the year who might reasonably be expected to have stronger legal arguments for release and who might have meritorious forms of relief from which people with criminal histories are precluded. To put it simply, ICE is detaining far more legally sympathetic cases today than at the start of the year, and this change in composition inside facilities likely has a range of subtle consequences for what detention is like these days.
None of this is a surprise to longtime readers of this Substack newsletter. Back on February 3, I laid out the basic data-informed reasoning behind my definitive claim: “A review of the available data reveals a simple empirical reality: the only way for the Trump administration to increase all of its immigration enforcement numbers (arrests, detentions, deportations, etc.) is to target people who have no criminal convictions.” The latest data is further evidence for this earlier claim, and frankly, although I wouldn’t wish for this to be happening, the clarity of my earlier analysis is a testament to the predictive value of applied scholarship.
Here are a few different ways to look at the data to try to give you as thorough and unbiased of a picture as possible.
ICE arrests declined a bit in November based on this data. I broke down the latest Deportation Data Project data on Wednesday. Estimates from that data show about 34,400 ICE arrests for October, so this tracks.¹ Just to answer a question before I get it: arrests and detention numbers do not necessarily correlate on a monthly basis due to a variety of factors, including average length of stays in detention. I wrote a Substack post about this in 2021 that is still relevant, so check that out: “Understanding Detention Numbers.”
This pie chart includes CBP and ICE arrests so you get a more complete picture of the total detained population, not only those arrested by ICE. I haven’t included that breakdown in a while, so let me add that here first.The overall number of people on alternatives to detention (ATD) continues to hold remarkably steady with an overall total of around 182,000 people on electronic monitoring. The trend in ICE’s Alternatives to Detention enrollment continues, with ICE shuffling people off of the smartphone tracking app known as SmartLINK and ramping up the number of people on the more punitive GPS ankle monitors.
With a longer look back to 2020, we can see that ankle monitor usage has now exceeded the previous high in 2021 of around 35,000. GPS ankle monitors are much more physically and socially punitive compared to SmartLink and other electronic monitoring devices. While I do not endorse electronic monitoring as a practice or believe that it represents a legitimate alternative to detention, I also think that if ICE is going to use ATD, electronic ankle shackles is a dehumanizing and stigmatizing technology that should be avoided rather than expanded.