The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan have once again intensified with the launch of Operation Sindoor, a covert and undeclared military campaign. While neither side has formally acknowledged the operation, ground reports, military mobilizations, and heightened diplomatic rhetoric all point towards a shadow war playing out beneath the radar of conventional warfare. In this high-stakes game, where information warfare and strategic posturing are as crucial as boots on the ground, the implications are vast and multifaceted. Let us delve into who stands to gain and who is likely to lose from this unfolding scenario.
India’s primary goal in Operation Sindoor appears to be the dismantling of cross-border terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). If successful, India could gain significant strategic depth and restore deterrence after years of border skirmishes, infiltration, and proxy warfare. By targeting key launch pads, arms caches, and communication hubs used by terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, India aims to send a strong message—not just to Pakistan, but to other adversaries observing its posture.
Another potential gain for India is the consolidation of internal political support. In times of external conflict, nationalist sentiment tends to rise, which could benefit the ruling government by shifting focus from domestic challenges such as inflation, unemployment, and social unrest. Moreover, military success could boost India’s image as a decisive regional power on the global stage.
However, India also risks diplomatic isolation or criticism, especially if civilian casualties are reported or if Pakistan is able to project India as the aggressor. Countries like China and Turkey may rally behind Pakistan in international forums, and even neutral players like the Gulf nations could call for restraint. Additionally, a protracted conflict may drain resources and strain India’s military preparedness on its other frontiers, especially the volatile Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.
Pakistan stands to lose the most in the immediate term, especially if Indian strikes successfully cripple its non-state assets in PoK. With its economy already reeling under inflation, debt, and IMF scrutiny, a military escalation—covert or otherwise—can destabilize its internal balance. The Pakistani Army, which has traditionally leveraged the India threat to justify its dominance over civilian institutions, may suffer credibility erosion if it fails to respond effectively.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s international narrative of victimhood is likely to wear thin. While Islamabad may attempt to rally the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) or appeal to the United Nations, the global community—particularly the West—is increasingly impatient with Pakistan’s long-standing tolerance or sponsorship of terrorist actors. If Operation Sindoor successfully exposes and targets these links, it may further isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
Yet, there are strategic openings for Pakistan as well. If it manages to portray India’s actions as unjustified aggression, it could reignite the Kashmir debate globally. Moreover, if China covertly backs Pakistan—either militarily or diplomatically—Islamabad could turn the operation into a broader regional standoff, diverting pressure away from its domestic failures.
The biggest losers, regardless of the outcome, are the civilians in Kashmir—on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC). Any military operation, declared or not, inevitably leads to displacement, fear, and loss of life. PoK inhabitants, often caught between militants and military forces, face the risk of becoming collateral damage in India’s precision strikes. On the Indian side, border villages could be subject to retaliatory shelling, triggering evacuations and trauma.
The operation could also lead to a fresh cycle of unrest in the Kashmir Valley, especially if radical groups use it to fan anti-India sentiments. Civil liberties might be curtailed under the guise of national security, and the delicate balance between development and militarization could tilt further towards the latter. While security operations may weaken terrorism in the long run, the immediate fallout for ordinary Kashmiris could be severe.
The United States, European Union, and other global players have largely taken a neutral or watchful stance so far, preferring not to intervene in an “internal matter” unless it escalates. However, a full-scale conflict—or a successful Indian operation that drastically shifts the power dynamics—could redraw South Asia’s security architecture. Nations like Afghanistan, Iran, and the Gulf states are monitoring the situation closely, given their proximity and stake in regional stability.
China, meanwhile, emerges as a silent stakeholder. Any weakening of Pakistan affects Beijing’s investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative. If the operation jeopardizes CPEC routes or strategic PoK zones, China may choose to increase military aid or surveillance support to Pakistan. Conversely, if India maintains a limited scope for the operation, it may gain quiet approval from nations tired of cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan.
Operation Sindoor marks a significant turning point in India-Pakistan relations—not because it’s the first undeclared war, but because it reflects a new doctrine of proactive strategic operations under plausible deniability. India seems to be testing the limits of conventional warfare norms, seeking results without triggering a full-scale war. Pakistan, caught in a complex web of economic distress and diplomatic fatigue, may not have many cards left to play except raising the specter of escalation.
The ultimate success or failure of Operation Sindoor will depend not only on military outcomes but also on the narrative war that follows. In this shadow conflict, perception is as potent as precision. And in that sense, both nations stand on a knife-edge—where every strike, every word, and every civilian casualty could shape the region’s future.