Bihar goes to polls in October–November 2025, and the stage is set for another cliffhanger. With 243 seats in the Assembly and 122 needed for a majority, the battle lines are clear—yet the outcome remains uncertain. The 2020 election was decided by a razor’s edge. NDA won 125 seats with 37.26% votes, while the INDIA bloc managed 110 seats with 37.23% votes. RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, but the alliance fell short of power. That wafer-thin margin means even a 1% swing in 2025 could change the government.
What Polls Show
Recent surveys give the NDA a slight edge. A Times Now poll projected NDA at 136 seats. Moneycontrol analysis suggested BJP is gaining ground but JD(U) may shrink. ABP–CVoter, however, placed Tejashwi Yadav as the most preferred CM face, ahead of Nitish Kumar. The numbers suggest an NDA advantage in organization, but not a runaway race.
The SIR Controversy
The voter list revision (SIR) has become a storm. Many names were reported missing, particularly among minorities and migrants. The INDIA bloc has run with this narrative, calling it an attempt to delete targeted votes. The propaganda has created anger and hurt NDA’s image in sensitive areas.
Is former Member of Punjab Public Service Commission
A farmer and keen observer of current affairs
Modi’s Mother Enters the Campaign
But INDIA has also made a damaging misstep. Abusive remarks directed at Prime Minister Modi’s mother have been amplified by the BJP as an attack on family values. In Bihar’s traditional society, such language is seen as unacceptable. The result: sympathy for Modi, and a likely boost for the NDA.
The Jan Suraaj Factor
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is the new variable. With its “school bag” symbol, JSP is tapping into youth, EBCs, and minorities. While it may hurt both camps, early signs show it could cut deeper into the INDIA bloc’s base, especially among RJD’s young and Muslim supporters.
The Road Ahead
As of now, NDA looks ahead with 125–150 seats (vote share ~39–42%), INDIA bloc may finish with 85–110 (35–38%), and Others 5–20. But Bihar’s history proves one thing: even a half-percent swing can rewrite the story. With the SIR controversy, JSP’s rise, and the backlash over Modi’s mother, the election remains open until the final vote is counted.