The relationship between India and the United States has been strategically important, characterized by growing economic ties, robust defense cooperation, and shared democratic values. However, recent diplomatic developments, particularly the exclusion of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi from U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony in January 2017, have raised questions about the trajectory of the bilateral relationship.
India, as the world’s largest democracy, had long enjoyed a relatively warm and cooperative relationship with the U.S., particularly during the Obama administration. Under Obama, India was recognized as a key partner in Asia, with both nations deepening trade, military, and security collaboration. The U.S. also supported India’s rise as a global power, backing its membership in various international institutions. Prime Minister Modi, who took office in 2014, capitalized on this momentum by building stronger ties with the U.S. and engaging in high-profile diplomatic efforts.
However, Trump’s refusal to invite PM Modi to his inauguration raised eyebrows. While invitations to foreign leaders are often based on a variety of political, diplomatic, and logistical factors, many viewed Modi’s exclusion as a signal of potential shifts in U.S.-India relations under the new administration. For India, this was seen as a diplomatic setback and an indication of uncertainty in the bilateral ties, given the high hopes placed on continued growth and engagement with the U.S.
Despite the early hiccups, the future of India-U.S. relations is unlikely to be determined solely by one event. Several factors will continue to shape the relationship in the years ahead:
1. Strategic Interests and Security Cooperation: One of the most significant drivers of India-U.S. relations is shared security concerns, particularly regarding China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Both nations have increasingly collaborated on defense and military issues, with joint exercises, arms sales, and strategic dialogues becoming a regular feature of their partnership. As China asserts its dominance in the region, India and the U.S. will likely continue to deepen their defense ties, despite occasional political differences. The Indo-Pacific Strategy, in which both countries have a shared interest, will likely remain a central pillar of their future relations.
2. Trade and Economic Ties: The U.S. is one of India’s largest trading partners, with growing investments in technology, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing. While there are disputes over trade imbalances, tariffs, and market access, both nations recognize the importance of a robust economic relationship. Prime Minister Modi has focused on economic reforms and foreign direct investment, areas where the U.S. could play a crucial role. A growing tech partnership between Silicon Valley and Indian start-ups, as well as collaboration in sectors like renewable energy, will continue to drive economic ties forward, despite occasional tensions over trade policy.
3. Shared Values and Soft Power: Both India and the U.S. share a commitment to democratic principles and human rights, despite differences in approach. India is one of the world’s largest democracies, and the U.S. often sees India as a natural partner in the promotion of democratic values in Asia and the wider world. Modi’s leadership, particularly in the context of domestic policies such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, may present challenges to bilateral ties, particularly in the areas of human rights and freedom of speech. Nevertheless, shared democratic values and India’s influence within the global community, including its diaspora in the U.S., will likely remain strong points of engagement.
4. The Role of Global Institutions: India and the U.S. both play influential roles in global institutions such as the United Nations, World Trade Organization, and World Health Organization. Moving forward, both nations will likely continue to cooperate on a range of global issues, from climate change and sustainable development to pandemic response and nuclear nonproliferation. The future of these institutions, and the evolving power dynamics within them, will require India and the U.S. to work closely together, even as their individual national interests occasionally diverge.
5. Personal Diplomacy: Despite initial tensions, both Modi and Trump have developed a personal rapport. Modi’s ability to build strong relationships with world leaders, including Trump, has been a cornerstone of India’s foreign policy. The personal dynamics between the two leaders will continue to influence diplomatic engagement. Modi’s outreach to the U.S. has been seen in his participation in events such as the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston in 2019, where he addressed a large crowd of Indian-Americans, showcasing the deep ties between the U.S. and India’s people-to-people relationships. Similarly, Trump’s visits to India and his interactions with Modi have reinforced the notion of a strong partnership, even if the initial formalities were strained.
Conclusion: While PM Modi’s exclusion from Trump’s inauguration may have been an early signal of potential diplomatic friction, it is unlikely to define the future trajectory of India-U.S. relations. Both countries have significant shared interests in global security, trade, and economic development, and these common goals will continue to provide a strong foundation for cooperation. As geopolitical dynamics shift in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, the relationship between India and the U.S. is likely to remain one of strategic importance, marked by both cooperation and occasional challenges.
The future of India-U.S. relations will ultimately depend on how both nations navigate their differences and capitalize on the areas of mutual benefit. As global challenges evolve, so too will the nature of this relationship—one that remains central to the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century