Is former Member of Punjab Public Service Commission
A farmer and keen observer of current affairs
The former president posted this on social media, sharing the now-famous SCO photograph of Narendra Modi with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. It was a moment of rare candor—and a telling admission that U.S. policy is backfiring.For Washington, this is more than optics. India standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Xi and Putin sends a geopolitical signal: America’s pressure tactics, especially tariffs and ultimatums, are driving Delhi toward alternative alignments. A U.S. journalist described the SCO picture as sending “a chill down the spine of every American.” Shashi Tharoor put it bluntly: America, don’t lose India. But if the U.S. continues to punish India for strategic autonomy, it risks doing exactly that.
Trump’s own choices have made this rupture worse. His global tariff spree—50% on Indian exports at one point—was billed as economic nationalism. In reality, it undercut trust with partners who felt treated like adversaries. India’s reaction was predictable: when squeezed by Washington, it doubled down on discounted Russian energy and reopened channels with Beijing, even if relations remain uneasy.
Now, Trump is adding military signaling to the mix. His defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has confirmed the Pentagon has been told to prepare for deterring Russia and China across all domains—air, land, sea, space, and cyber. But here lies the contradiction: first push partners away with tariffs, then mobilize against the very blocs that such pressure strengthens. This is not strategy; it is self-fulfilling prophecy.
The consequences are already visible. Australia, which has invested in the Quad, is now questioning whether America can keep India firmly aligned. Europe is speaking more loudly about “strategic sovereignty.” And India—long committed to non-alignment—sees no reason to yield when Washington treats it as a junior partner rather than an equal.
The social media post matters because it reveals awareness, even anxiety, inside Trump’s camp. But awareness is not enough. If the U.S. truly cannot afford to lose India, it must change course: scale back tariffs, stop the public pressure, and build cooperation in technology, energy, and defense on equal terms.
Otherwise, the SCO photo Trump shared will not be a warning. It will be the new normal.