The Tarn Taran by-poll offered the first real test of Amritpal’s continuing ground influence. The Waris Punjab De–backed candidate, Mandeep Singh Khalsa, finished third with a meaningful vote share ahead of Congress and BJP though behind SAD and the AAP winner. This result underlines two realities: Waris Punjab De retains pockets of loyalty, but its Lok Sabha momentum has not automatically translated into Vidhan Sabha strength.
Why Amritpal’s parole matters so much now
Punjab’s political field, currently, is abnormally fluid. A single triggering event can alter the entire mood a police clash, a symbolic insult, or a sudden court ruling. The recent Panjab University incidents and the Centre’s moves regarding Chandigarh demonstrated how quickly emotions can escalate.
That is why Amritpal’s parole is not merely a legal question; it could become a political turning point.
SAD’s revival and why Amritpal impacts it the most
The Shiromani Akali Dal is widely perceived to be in revival mode after almost a decade of decline, internal turmoil and political isolation. Its slow recovery is built on reconnecting with its traditional Sikh vote base, projecting panthic credibility, and positioning itself as the only stable alternative to AAP. But Amritpal’s persona directly overlaps with the very constituency SAD desperately needs to reclaim Sikh youth, panthic voters, and identity-driven supporters. He has the potential to become the nucleus of the entire panthic electorate.
If Amritpal receives parole and delivers even a short, disciplined, constitutionally grounded speech in Parliament, the political impact could be dramatic:
It would instantly re-legitimise him in the eyes of his supporters.It would project him as a national, even global, Sikh voice, a role SAD once monopolised and is now struggling to recover.It would shift attention away from SAD’s revival narrative and toward a more raw, insurgent panthic alternative with Amritpal at its centre.It would reposition him not as a detainee, but as a defiant, articulate defender of Punjab in the national forum.
And importantly, it would reset the minority-polarisation button in Punjab, as sections of the Minority community of Punjab may view this development as a moment for political re-alignment to safeguard their own security and long-term interests.
Is former Member of Punjab Public Service Commission
A farmer and keen observer of current affairs
In that scenario, the party impacted the most will be the Shiromani Akali Dal.
Not AAP.
Not Congress.
Not BJP.
Because Amritpal does not compete with them for the same voters; he competes with SAD for the very core of its identity.
The broader backdrop intensifies the threat
Ongoing discussions about Chandigarh’s administrative status and fears that Article 240 could dilute Punjab’s stake have revived long-standing anxieties about state rights and Punjabi identity. In such a moment, any figure speaking boldly about Punjab’s dignity especially from the floor of Parliament gains enormous symbolic weight.
The bottom line
Waris Punjab De is not positioned to repeat its 2024 Lok Sabha success in the 2027 Vidhan Sabha polls; Tarn Taran made that clear. But Punjab’s politics often turns on moments and incidents, not trends. If Amritpal walks into Parliament and delivers a calm but forceful address, it could redraw the battlefield for the 2027 assembly elections.