The recent Ludhiana West Assembly by-election has not only reaffirmed the ruling Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) grip on power in Punjab but also exposed the shifting dynamics and growing discontent within the opposition ranks. Sanjeev Arora, a sitting Rajya Sabha MP and AAP’s candidate, secured a convincing win by defeating Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu by over 10,000 votes. This victory has provided a morale boost to the Mann-led government, especially after its recent underwhelming performance in Delhi. However, a deeper analysis reveals both opportunities and warning signs for all major political players.
AAP’s decision to field Sanjeev Arora, a prominent industrialist with strong local roots, proved strategic. The campaign focused on development, governance, and direct engagement with voters. The party increased its vote share compared to the 2022 assembly elections, showing that despite some anti-incumbency, it retains public support. The result has solidified AAP’s standing ahead of the 2027 assembly elections, although it will need to address rising expectations and ongoing issues in governance.
On the other hand, the Congress party has once again failed to convert its potential into performance. Infighting, poor coordination, and lack of a united leadership during the campaign led to another electoral setback. This loss marks the party’s fourth defeat in five Punjab by-polls, further deepening the internal crisis. Senior leaders were notably absent from the campaign, and post-result blame games have already begun, showing that the party remains directionless in the state.
Interestingly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) showed signs of growth, finishing third with over 20,000 votes. Though it couldn’t overtake Congress, the BJP’s performance indicates a growing foothold in Punjab’s urban constituencies. Leaders like Sunil Jakhar framed the result as evidence that voters are searching for a strong alternative to both AAP and Congress. However, the BJP’s delayed candidate announcement and weak booth-level management prevented a stronger showing.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) continued its downward spiral. Its candidate forfeited his security deposit, reflecting the party’s shrinking support base, even in urban Sikh-dominated areas. The loss has triggered dissent within the party, with rebel leaders demanding that Sukhbir Badal step down from leadership due to repeated failures. SAD appears to be in an existential crisis, and unless it repositions itself or reshuffles its leadership, it risks becoming irrelevant in Punjab politics.
This by-election has reinforced the notion that Punjab’s political landscape is no longer bipolar. The contest was clearly four-cornered, with AAP, Congress, BJP, and SAD all vying for influence. AAP remains ahead, but with decreasing margins, while BJP is steadily rising as a third alternative. Congress continues to flounder, and SAD is now on the verge of collapse unless significant internal reforms are undertaken.
As Punjab moves towards the 2027 Assembly elections, the Ludhiana West by-poll has served as a reality check for all parties. It has exposed organizational weaknesses, shifting voter preferences, and the pressing need for rejuvenated leadership across the spectrum. The coming months will be crucial as parties recalibrate their strategies to either consolidate power or reclaim lost ground in a rapidly evolving political battleground.