The Sikh community, which is already facing a big leadership, political-structural crisis and finds itself in the middle of diplomatic crisis with Canada and international politics involving India, is now facing a demographic shift in Punjab. The population growth rate in Punjab has been consistently declining over the last decade, based on statistics of the Civil Registration System (CRS), and this has led to strong apprehensions about demographic shift in the state. As per the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2019-21, total fertility rate (TFR) in Punjab was 1.6, lower than the replacement level of 2.1.Even Akal Takht Jathedar Giani Raghbir Singh highlighted this issue in his address last year on Bandi Chhor Diwas, which coincides with Diwali. The Jathedar highlighted that Sikhs were getting reduced to a minority in the only Sikh majority state in the country in view of the prevailing trends of emigration of Sikh youths and influx of migrants from other states into Punjab. The Census, which was scheduled to be conducted in 2021, is yet to be carried out, but the analysis of data from the “Report on Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2023-24” and its juxtaposition with the 2011 Census data reveals that Punjab has already undergone a demographic shift. Of all students, Sikh children studying at foundational level — pre-primary to Class II in age group of 3-8 years — are an estimated 49%, which is 8.68% lower than the Sikh population of 57.69% in Punjab in the 2011 Census.
Punjab is the only state in the country, along with Union Territory of Chandigarh, where minority enrolment shows increase from lower to higher classes, highlighting their dropping enrolment at the primary level. This is clearly the result of the two trends visible on the ground – young Punjabis, especially Sikhs, are moving abroad and having children in foreign countries while working-aged people are migrating from other states to Punjab, settling here and having children.
UDISE+, which is run by the Union ministry of education, gathers data from all recognized schools that provide formal education from pre-primary to Class XII, and its current data covers more than 14.71 lakh schools, 98 lakh teachers and 24.8 crore children across the country. The report provides the percentage of Muslim minority enrolment and enrolment of minority groups separately. In Punjab, Sikhs remain the biggest contributor to the minority groups’ enrolment and any visible trend reflects more about this community only.
The usual trend, which is also visible across other states, is that enrolment is higher at primary level and gradually decreases in higher classes. However, the enrolment of minority groups in Punjab shows the reverse trend – it is
high in secondary level and low at foundational level. Interestingly, even in the case of Muslims, this decrease is in
the other direction in Punjab – from primary level to secondary level, at age 14-18 years.
In Punjab, enrolment of students belonging to minority groups in secondary level (Class IX to XII, covering 14-18
years) is 60.3%; in middle level (Class VI-VIII, covering 11-14 years) is 58.3%; in preparatory level (Class III-V, covering
8-11 years) is 56.2%; and in foundational level (Class Pre-primary to II, covering 3-8 years) is 54.3%.
Among Muslims in Punjab, enrolment in secondary level is 2.1%; in middle level 2.6%; in preparatory 3.2% and in
foundational 3.4%.
According to the 2011 Census, Muslim population in Punjab was 1.93%, but there has been a visible increase of
Muslim migration from Uttar Pradesh in the last few years, which was confirmed to TOI by the Punjab Waqf
Board and Muslim community leaders in Oct 2023. This trend can be a contributing factor for the increased
enrolment at primary level. Despite Muslims contributing more students at primary level, overall numbers are
lower at this level in enrolment of minority students, reflecting the squeezing percentage of Sikh children at
primary level.
Total enrolment of Sikh children nationally is 1.38%
UDISE+ 2023-24 report mentions that the representation of minorities in total enrolment is around 20%. Amongst
the minorities, 79.6 % are Muslim, 10% are Christians, 6.9% are Sikh, 2.2 % are Buddhist, 1.3% are Jains and 0.1%
Parsis. This reflects that Sikh students in the country are 1.38%, which reflects a decline against 1.72% of their
population share in the country in 2011.
Pb’s share in 3-7 age group in total enrolment is 1.7%
Punjab made 2.29% of the total population in the country in the 2011 Census. But, in the “population projection”
data in the UDISE+ in the 3-7 age group in 2023, Punjab’s share was 1.73% (22,24,108) of total students
(12,85,77,060) enrolled in the country in this age group. Haryana, though smaller, had share of 2.13% (27,40,133).
Taking into account that they constitute 49% (as explained in story) of their group in Punjab, Sikh children in the
state would work out to be 0.85% of the total figure nationally. In the 2011 Census, 76.8% of Sikh population in the
country lived in Punjab and the remaining outside the state. Taking this into account, Sikh children in Punjab and
rest of India in this group comes around 1.1% of the total figure. As a comparison, in the 2011 Census, Sikh
population in the country was 1.72%.
Number of Hindu kids rise, but not Punjabi Hindus
Though analysis of data from UDISE+ 2023-24 reflects that percentage of Hindu children at foundational level
would be 45.7% – 7.22% more than the Hindu population share of 38.48% in the 2011 Census – this hike would be
entirely due to migrant population from other states, as in the last few years there has been significant increase
of migration of young people from urban areas, including upper caste Hindus. The trend has also picked up in
Scheduled Caste communities too, especially in the better-off sections, making Hindu SCs join the migration
trend like the Sikh community.
Are Hindu migrants returning to their home states?
Comparison of UDISE+ data from 2021-22 and 2023-24 reflects that Punjab has seen a fall of 1.58 lakh in total enrolment and of 2.66 lakh in govt schools despite an increase in enrolment of Muslim children at foundational/preparatory levels. This possibly shows a section of Hindu migrants, especially from UP and Bihar, going back and withdrawing children from Punjab schools.
Muslim enrolment till Class V reflects rise of 22% in 2 yrs
According to UDISE+ report 2021-22, the percentage of Muslim minority enrolment to total enrolment at primary
level (Class I-V) in Punjab was 2.7. According to the UDISE+ 2023-24 report, Muslim percentage at foundational
level is 3.4 (up to Class II) and preparatory (Class III-V) is 3.2 and the combined percentage works out to 3.3. This
reflects an increase of around 22% in Muslim children till Class V in two years.
When the available Muslim percentage of 3.4% at foundational level and other minority groups’ percentage
based on their population data of 2011 (Christian 1.25%, Jains 0.16%, Buddhist 0.11%, other religions 0.03%, religion
not stated 0.31%) is deducted from total minority enrolment of 54.3%, the percentage of Sikh children works out
be around 49%.
When this data and pattern emerging from UDSIE+ is assessed with the statistics from Civil Registration System
(CRS), which reflects falling numbers in birth registration in Punjab, more clarity emerges. The last report
available on CRS is for 2020. In Punjab, there were 5,11,058 births in 2011 and 3,81,200 in 2020. In comparison, in
neighbouring Haryana, which is smaller than Punjab, there were 5,91,914 births in 2020. The biggest reason for
such drastic decline in births can be attributed to emigration of young people from Punjab even as migrants
from other states are adding to the birth rate in the state. Actual decline of birth rate among Punjabis in Punjab
would be even more severe. The decline in birth rate in Punjab is in consonance with decline in enrolment at
primary level of children belonging to minority groups.
Chandigarh data shows fewer Sikh children at primary level
Chandigarh also exhibits a pattern like Punjab. In the UT, enrolment of minority groups at secondary level is 16.5%
but at foundational level it is 15%. However, unlike the gradual shift in Punjab, the data from Chandigarh schools
reflects a consistent percentage from primary to middle levels and the gap is reflected only at secondary level.
Like Punjab, Muslim enrolment in Chandigarh shows a contrasting trend – it is higher at primary level with 6.6%
and this drops to 4.2% at secondary level.
If Muslim enrolment at foundational level is deducted from the data of minority groups, for remaining groups this
percentage is 8.4% and this would include around 1.21% of other minority groups, according to their population
percentage in Chandigarh. Enrolment of Sikh children in Chandigarh in primary schools is around 7.2% whereas
in the 2011 Census, the Sikh population in the UT was 13.1%. This 2011 figure was close to half of Sikh population
share in 1971 and their population was 16.1% in Chandigarh in the 2001 census.
The Sikh population in Chandigarh, which was carved out of villages of the Puadh region of Punjab, has been
going down and this is evident from the fact that in the 1971 Census, Sikhs constituted around 25.45% of the
population and their population share 50 years later is down to 13.1% in 2011 – almost a 50% reduction.
The Sikh population is more in higher age groups and minimum in lowest age groups. Till 10 years of age, Sikh
children constituted just 8.9% of the population in that age group, with their percentage of population gradually
increasing in age groups going upwards. For instance, 28.3% of the Sikh population of Chandigarh is in the 70-74
age group. In contrast, the Hindu population’s highest share is in the lower age groups, 83.6% in the 0-4 age
group. This share gradually decreases with age, as the share in the 70-74 age group is 68.2%.
The writer is Assistant Editor at The Times of India, based in Jalandhar. He covers news in the region and writes on politics, environmental issues, heritage preservation and contemporary trends. He specializes in deciphering religion-political peculiarities and complexities of Punjab.