As of mid-May 2025, the India-Pakistan conflict has entered a tense but fragile ceasefire following a series of violent escalations that began in April. The trigger was a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination in Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22. The attack killed 26 people, most of them tourists. India accused Pakistan-based militant groups of orchestrating the assault, prompting a strong military response.
On May 7, India launched “Operation Sindoor,” targeting what it claimed were terrorist training camps and infrastructure deep inside Pakistan’s territory, including areas such as Bahawalpur, Muridke, and Muzaffarabad. Using Rafale fighter jets and long-range SCALP missiles, India aimed to cripple the logistical backbone of the alleged militant networks. Pakistan responded forcefully, claiming to have shot down several Indian aircraft and launching retaliatory shelling along the Line of Control (LoC), which led to further civilian and military casualties on both sides.
Despite intense hostilities, a ceasefire was brokered on May 10 through diplomatic intervention, primarily by the United States. However, India denied claims that trade incentives influenced its decision to agree to the ceasefire, reiterating that the talks were purely security-oriented. As of now, Pakistan reports 51 casualties, including both military personnel and civilians, while India has yet to release a full account of its losses.
Even as the guns fell silent, diplomatic tensions continued to rise. Both nations expelled diplomats, issued stern warnings, and ramped up nationalistic rhetoric. India further escalated pressure by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates water sharing between the two countries, and halted all bilateral trade with Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated firmly that “terror and trade cannot go together… water and blood cannot flow together,” underlining India’s strategic use of economic and resource-based tools to isolate Pakistan.
The humanitarian impact of the conflict has been severe. Border regions, especially in Kashmir, witnessed intense shelling, resulting in civilian casualties, including children. Thousands of migrant laborers working in sensitive border areas returned to their home villages amid safety concerns, disrupting local industries such as textiles and agriculture.
Internationally, there has been widespread concern. While U.S. President Donald Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir issue, India rejected the proposal, reaffirming that it views Kashmir as a bilateral matter. The ceasefire, though currently holding, is precarious. Analysts caution that the conflict has eroded long-standing restraints, with both countries now more willing to engage in aggressive, wide-ranging operations and use critical resources like water as tools of coercion.
In summary, although open hostilities have paused for now, the India-Pakistan situation remains deeply volatile, and the potential for renewed conflict looms large unless sustained diplomatic efforts are made to address the underlying issues.