The world has entered a phase where international law feels like a relic of a bygone era. We are back to the “might is right” rules of the medieval ages, where the strongest simply takes what they want.Though the USA has never in the past fully respected international law, there was at least some pretense, which Trump has now dropped. With “Operation Absolute Resolve” capturing President Nicolás Maduro and flying him to New York, the shedding of the cloak of diplomacy is finally complete. There is no longer a need for elaborate justifications. A weak reason, or no reason at all, seems to suffice, as the global community has shown it has no power to stop it. As always, the UNO is now consigned to the store room shelves.
The United States of an earlier, more interventionist era is back with a bang. The self-claimed “peacemaker” now seems to be vying for the title of a conqueror. It seems as if he is settling a personal score for being denied the Nobel Peace Prize. While the public narrative centers on oil, a few experts have added to the narrative that this is about something deeper: the survival of the dollar. By seizing control of Venezuela, the U.S. isn’t just securing the world’s largest oil reserves; it is sending a message to anyone considering de-dollarization.
The most puzzling part of this drama is the reaction from China, which has not been as strong as expected. Beijing has massive interests in Venezuela, with state-owned firms like CNPC and Sinopec controlling joint ventures with billions of barrels in reserves. Furthermore, Caracas owes China upwards of $10 billion in debt.
It is only natural to suspect there might be a deal under the table. Why else would China remain less perturbed while its investments are effectively being taken over by a rival power? This theory gains weight when considering Trump’s own stance on the region. He has stated that what China does to Taiwan is essentially its own issue, though he added he would not be happy if it is annexed.
If the U.S. and China have reached a private understanding over Venezuela, it puts Taiwan in real danger. The U.S. will only flex its muscles to protect Taiwan if it remains a strategic asset of high value. If a “trade-off” has been made, Taiwan’s existence may be the price paid for American dominance in its self-proclaimed backyard. Of course, another possibility is that the U.S. has finally woken up to the need to neutralize Chinese influence in its own sphere by force. Perhaps China is simply biding its time, working on its own long-term counter-strategies. All options remain open, but the lack of an immediate, very sharp response from Beijing suggests something is happening, or has happened, behind the scenes.
His writing is characterized by a direct, unapologetic style where he explores the current concerns of society from a grounded perspective. His work covers the shifting moral, political, and security landscapes of the modern world, intended to provoke thought and dialogue
Looking at our own position, it is hard not to feel that we have become too cautious to even make a strong statement. Our foreign policy has been characterized by “acquiescing” to the superpower, but where are the returns? While we face repeated fresh duty threats, including a massive 50% tariff already on our exports (half of which is a penalty for our Russian oil purchases), our neighbor Pakistan seems to be reaping rewards. Washington is engaging with Islamabad on port access and mineral chains, leaving us on the sidelines. At the very least, someone should have come up with a strong statement.
Are the Russians too part of some understanding? The capture of Maduro is a direct blow to Moscow’s influence in the Western Hemisphere, but it also signals a shift that will inevitably affect Ukraine. If the U.S. is moving back to a “spheres of influence” model where they do as they please in their backyard, they may soon lose interest in defending Ukraine, leaving it to its fate in exchange for concessions elsewhere.
The hunger for expansion isn’t stopping. President Trump is already looking toward Greenland. His recent doubling down on the “need” for the territory for national security, while mocking Denmark’s defense, shows he is getting adventurous.
The world is up for grabs. From the oil fields of Venezuela to the mineral-rich ice of the Arctic, the maps are being redrawn by force. If we don’t find our voice now, we may find that in this new medieval age, we are simply part of someone else’s prize.