Punjab Outlook

Punjab’s politics is in flux once again. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was virtually exiled from rural Punjab after the farm agitation, is slowly but surely creeping back into the countryside. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which swept to power in 2022 on a historic wave of anger against the old order, now looks reactive, nervous, and directionless. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), once the unchallenged Panthic force, is splintered into multiple factions battling for relevance. And Congress, the oldest party of them all, is locked in a civil war, with every senior leader eyeing the CM’s chair in 2027 and pulling the party in different directions.

The Tarn Taran by-election, necessitated by the death of AAP MLA Dr. Kashmir Singh Sohal, has become the sharpest test yet of these shifts. This is no ordinary seat. Tarn Taran is the epicenter of Panthic politics — where religion, identity, and farmer sentiment overlap. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Amritpal Singh, now imprisoned, had led from this segment by a massive margin. The bypoll, to be followed just 14 months later by the 2027 Vidhan Sabha elections, carries symbolism far greater than its numbers.

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AAP may field Harmeet Singh Sandhu, a three-time former Akali MLA, in a bid to regain credibility and counter its recent governance setbacks. BJP has nominated Harjit Singh Sandhu, its boldest attempt yet to re-enter villages where it was once unwelcome. SAD (Badal) has chosen Sukhwinder Kaur “Principal” Randhawa, clinging to its shrinking Panthic base. Congress has yet to announce a candidate, while Paramjit Kaur Khalra, widow of slain human rights activist Jaswant Singh Khalra, was floated but is unlikely to contest. Adding further complexity, Amrit Kaur Maloya — daughter of Beant Singh, one of Indira Gandhi’s assassins — has jumped in as an Independent.

This comes on the heels of another shock: her brother, Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, son of Beant Singh, won as an Independent MP from Faridkot in the 2024 General Elections. His and Amritpal Singh’s victories sent tremors across India’s political spectrum. The electorate’s signals are confusing: on one hand, sons of Indira Gandhi’s assassins — who stormed the Golden Temple and oversaw the destruction of the Akal Takht — are being chosen as representatives. On the other hand, leaders from Indira Gandhi’s own party remain supremely confident of victory in 2027. As per a recent survey, Congress may well emerge as the single largest party if elections were held today, but will still fall short of the majority mark of 59. Strikingly, every senior Congress leader privately claims that their competition for the CM’s post is only with one person — and that person is common to all of them.

In this shifting landscape, AAP’s own missteps have deepened its crisis. Its Land Pooling misadventure, hastily rolled back under farmer pressure, projected weakness instead of consultation. Rather than appearing as a farmers’ ally, AAP appeared panicked and confused. The Sisodia goof-up, widely seen as dismissive of Punjab’s pride and sensitivities, further dented its image. In a state where land and identity are sacred, such misjudgments corrode trust rapidly, if not corrected.

Yet, AAP’s foothold remains stronger than its rivals, thanks to free power and other welfare measures that still resonate with the masses. But the BJP has seized the moment. Even if villagers remain cautious, the very fact that BJP camps are being heard marks a turnaround. Its Tarn Taran candidate may not win outright, but even a respectable showing will symbolize the end of the boycott-era irrelevance of the saffron party in Punjab’s villages.

For AAP, the stakes are existential. A defeat in Tarn Taran will not be seen as an isolated bypoll setback, but as a referendum on its governance record. For SAD, survival hinges on whether it can reclaim even a fraction of its once-loyal Panthic base. For Congress, another muddled performance will confirm that it has lost both direction and narrative.

Punjab gave AAP a historic mandate to deliver change. Today, it appears defensive, reactionary, and consumed by its own missteps. Unless AAP returns to its founding promise — consultative policymaking, disciplined leadership, and welfare-driven governance — it risks being judged as just another party that promised the moon and fell to earth.

The writing on the wall is clear: Tarn Taran is not merely a bypoll. It is Punjab’s political mirror. For AAP, course correction is not optional. It is urgent — and perhaps, existential.