For decades, Iran and Israel have stood on opposite ends of the Middle Eastern geopolitical spectrum. Iran’s Islamic Republic, established after the 1979 revolution, made hostility toward Israel a cornerstone of its foreign policy. Over the years, Iran built a vast network of proxy forces — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and militia groups across Iraq and Syria collectively known as the ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Israel, backed by the United States, viewed this network as an existential encirclement. Tensions escalated dramatically after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people and sparking a war in Gaza that lasted over two years. Throughout that conflict, Iranian-backed groups launched missiles, drones, and rockets at Israel, testing the limits of confrontation. Nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, held in Geneva in early 2026, ultimately collapsed without an agreement, removing the last diplomatic firebreak.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive coordinated military operation against Iran, codenamed ‘Operation Epic Fury.’ The scale of the assault was staggering: Israel’s air force deployed over 1,200 munitions across 24 of Iran’s 31 provinces in a single night. The strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, military command centres, air defence systems, and strategic facilities. The most seismic development was the confirmed killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, in airstrikes targeting his office in Tehran. Within hours, Iranians poured into the streets in cities across the country, not in mourning, but in celebration, shouting in an outpouring of joy and disbelief after decades of repression under the Islamic Republic. Security forces were immediately deployed to suppress any organised uprising, and Iran’s government imposed a fresh internet blackout.
Iran responded swiftly and broadly. On March 1, 2026, Tehran launched waves of ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, targeting US military installations throughout the Gulf region. Iran also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes a move that sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Preliminary casualty figures stand at 555 dead in Iran, at least 10 in Israel, four American soldiers killed, and five dead in Gulf states. Iran’s military has threatened its ‘largest wave of attacks yet,’ meaning this conflict is very far from over. The coming weeks will define whether this conflict expands into a broader regional war or whether Iran’s leadership, now decapitated at the top, fractures and collapses from within. A prolonged conflict risks dragging in Hezbollah from Lebanon, destabilising Iraq, and triggering a full-blown Gulf war. If Iran’s regime falls, a massive political transition begins, one that could take years and involve enormous instability. The world is watching whether a post-Khamenei Iran can be rebuilt as a more moderate state, or whether the power vacuum leads to chaos.
Israel stands to gain the most in the short term, having dismantled its primary regional adversary and eliminated Iran’s nuclear threat. The Iranian opposition movement millions of citizens who have long suffered under the Islamic Republic, may finally see the opportunity for political change. Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, stand to gain long-term regional dominance if Iranian power collapses permanently.Iran’s civilian population bears the greatest cost, caught in the crossfire of military strikes they did not choose. Global oil markets are in turmoil, with the Strait of Hormuz closure threatening to spike fuel prices worldwide and slow economic growth. European allies of the United States reportedly not briefed in advance of the operation are alarmed by the unilateral nature of the strikes and the potential for an uncontrollable escalation. The broader Middle East, already exhausted from years of conflict, faces an extended period of instability with no clear endpoint.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, representing the largest land war in Europe since World War II. President Vladimir Putin justified the invasion on multiple grounds: preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, ‘denazifying’ the country (a claim widely condemned as false propaganda), and protecting Russian-speaking populations in eastern Ukraine. The deeper roots of the conflict lie in Russia’s imperial ambitions, its refusal to accept a sovereign, pro-Western Ukraine on its border, and decades of tension following the Soviet Union’s collapse. Ukraine’s resistance surprised the world, pushing back Russian forces from Kyiv in the early weeks of the war and transforming what Putin expected to be a quick victory into a grinding, multi-year conflict that has consumed hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides.
The war is now in its fourth year, with neither side achieving a decisive military breakthrough. The front lines have stabilized into a bloody war of attrition across eastern and southern Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine are experiencing serious difficulties recruiting sufficient military personnel. Russia faces growing domestic pressures: a ballooning budget deficit, new taxes to fund the war, rising inflation, and increasing social repression to prevent public dissent. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to fight on multiple fronts while its economy has been devastated and millions remain displaced. Three rounds of US-led peace talks held in the UAE and Switzerland in January and February 2026 have thus far failed to produce a breakthrough, with both sides still far apart on fundamental issues. The next round of talks, scheduled for this week, was expected to be held in UAE but may now shift to Istanbul following the closure of UAE airspace due to the Iran conflict.
Russia’s core demands center on Ukraine formally ceding the Donbas region and permanently abandoning its pursuit of NATO membership. Ukraine, for its part, refuses to legally surrender its sovereign territory and insists on concrete security guarantees from Western powers before any ceasefire. The UK and France have announced plans to establish ‘military hubs’ across Ukraine to bolster its defensive capabilities in any post-war arrangement, signaling that Europe is not prepared to leave Ukraine defenseless regardless of how talks conclude. The World Bank has estimated that rebuilding Ukraine’s devastated infrastructure and economy will cost at least $588 billion a staggering sum that raises profound questions about who will foot the bill.The most likely outcome, based on current trajectories, is a frozen conflict an uneasy ceasefire along existing front lines that satisfies nobody fully but ends the killing. If peace talks collapse entirely, the war could intensify as both sides attempt to secure more territory before any deal becomes possible. The longer-term question is whether Russia, weakened by war and sanctions, will accept the permanence of a Western-aligned Ukraine, or whether it will use any ceasefire as a pause to rearm and try again. Europe’s ability to maintain its security architecture and credibility after the war will be a defining test for the post-Cold War international order.
Russia, if a settlement is reached on its terms, gains de facto control of eastern Ukrainian territories and achieves its core security demand of keeping Ukraine out of NATO at enormous human and economic cost. The American and European defense industries have benefited enormously throughout the conflict from billions of dollars in weapons contracts. China has quietly profited by purchasing cheap Russian energy and filling the commercial vacuum left by Western companies that withdrew from Russia.Ukraine suffers the most obvious losses potentially being forced to accept the surrender of its own sovereign territory under the terms of any negotiated settlement, setting a deeply troubling precedent. Europe faces the uncomfortable reality of a continent where borders have been changed by military force, undermining the foundational principles of the post-World War II international order. NATO’s credibility as a deterrent is also at stake: if Ukraine is pressured into territorial concessions, smaller nations will question whether Western security guarantees are worth anything at all.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the deadliest attack on Jewish people since the Holocaust killing approximately 1,200 Israelis at a music festival and in surrounding communities, and taking around 250 hostages into Gaza. Israel’s military response was overwhelming and relentless. Over more than two years of combat, Gaza’s infrastructure was systematically destroyed. By January 2026, more than 71,000 Palestinians had been killed and another 171,000 injured, according to Palestinian health authorities. The conflict drew fierce international condemnation, accusations of collective punishment, and legal proceedings at the International Court of Justice, while Israel maintained it was conducting legitimate military operations against a terrorist organization that deliberately embedded itself among civilians.
A ceasefire brokered by the United States took effect on October 10, 2025, following the release of all remaining living hostages in exchange for approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. However, the ceasefire has proven deeply fragile. More than 450 Gazans have been killed since the agreement came into force, and Israel continues to control over half of the Gaza Strip militarily. Hamas remains armed and politically active despite suffering catastrophic losses. Humanitarian conditions remain dire: as of February 2026, households in Gaza reported averaging two meals per day — an improvement from one meal per day during the peak of the fighting in mid-2024, but still far below basic nutritional needs. One in five households still consumes only a single meal daily.The eruption of the US-Israel war against Iran has introduced dangerous new instability into the Gaza ceasefire. Palestinians fear that the wider regional war will overshadow Gaza entirely, diverting international attention and resources just weeks after the Trump administration rallied billions of dollars in pledges for Gaza’s reconstruction. With the region now engulfed in a far larger conflict, the already fragile ceasefire faces the risk of complete breakdown.
The two-state solution long considered the only viable path to lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians is further from realization today than at any point in recent memory. Gaza’s reconstruction will take decades and cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Hamas, though severely weakened, has not been destroyed as a political force. The fundamental grievances that gave rise to the conflict occupation, dispossession, and statelessness — remain entirely unresolved. Without a credible political horizon for Palestinians, the cycle of violence is likely to continue in some form regardless of any military outcome.Israel has achieved significant military objectives: Hamas has been severely weakened, its tunnel network largely destroyed, and all living hostages recovered. Gulf Arab states stand to profit enormously from reconstruction contracts, with hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure spending expected across Gaza in the coming years.
The Palestinian people have suffered catastrophic, generational losses — tens of thousands dead, 90% of Gaza’s infrastructure destroyed, and a million people displaced from their homes. Hamas, for all the suffering it inflicted and endured, has been militarily decimated and politically isolated. The broader cause of Middle Eastern peace has been set back by years, perhaps decades, and the prospect of a negotiated two-state solution appears more remote than ever.Sudan’s civil war erupted in April 2023, born out of a violent power struggle within the military junta that had ruled the country since the fall of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. The conflict pits the official Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) a powerful paramilitary organization originally built from the Janjaweed militias responsible for the Darfur genocide of the early 2000s. The RSF is backed by foreign mercenaries and supported by regional powers seeking influence over Sudan’s vast natural resources, particularly gold. The two sides, once allies in suppressing Sudan’s pro-democracy movement, turned on each other in a brutal contest for total control of the state.
Sudan’s war has produced one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with millions displaced, famine spreading across the country, and atrocities being committed on a massive scale. Gruesome footage from Darfur has documented RSF forces going on killing sprees in areas they have seized. Foreign policy experts surveyed in early 2026 rated Sudan as the conflict most likely to escalate and worsen during the year. There is no peace process underway, no credible international mediation, and no clear path toward resolution. The war risks becoming a permanent state of affairs for Sudan’s people — a slow-motion catastrophe unfolding largely out of sight of the world’s attention.
Foreign mercenary organizations and gold trafficking networks profit directly from Sudan’s instability. Regional powers including the UAE, Russia, and Egypt back different sides for strategic advantage, prolonging the conflict to serve their own interests. Sudan’s civilian population pays the ultimate price: famine, mass displacement, sexual violence as a weapon of war, and the complete collapse of public services. This is a war with no heroes, no clear ideological stakes for outside observers, and no constituency powerful enough to demand the international community act.The world in March 2026 is experiencing a level of simultaneous armed conflict not seen in decades. According to the United Nations, the number of active armed conflicts globally has reached approximately 130 — more than double the number just fifteen years ago. Over twenty of these conflicts have lasted more than two decades, creating entire generations of people who have known nothing but war. What makes the current moment particularly alarming is the convergence of multiple high-intensity conflicts at the same time, each with the potential to escalate into something far larger.
Technology is reshaping the nature of warfare in profound and troubling ways. Drones, artificial intelligence, and cyber operations are now standard tools of modern conflict, enabling smaller actors to inflict devastating damage and making traditional military deterrence increasingly difficult. Civilians bear an ever-greater share of the cost, as urban warfare, aerial bombardment, and blockade tactics are used systematically against populations.The international institutions designed to prevent and resolve conflict the United Nations Security Council, the International Court of Justice, regional bodies are struggling under the weight of great-power rivalry. With the US, Russia, and China all deeply invested in different conflicts, the Security Council is effectively paralyzed. The post-World War II rules-based international order, which kept great-power conflict largely in check for eight decades, is under its most serious stress test since it was established.The economic consequences of these wars are being felt worldwide. Oil prices have surged following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global supply chains disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war have still not fully recovered. Defense spending is rising sharply in almost every major economy, diverting resources from education, healthcare, and climate action. The human cost in lives lost, families destroyed, and futures stolen is incalculable.
Yet there are also signs of resilience. The Iranian people’s reaction to the fall of Khamenei suggests that millions yearn for something different a future not defined by perpetual hostility and repression. Ukraine’s extraordinary resistance has demonstrated that national will and democratic values can hold their own against vastly superior military force. Even in Gaza, the international community’s engagement however imperfect prevented the total erasure of Palestinian civilian life. The question for 2026 and beyond is whether the world’s institutions, leaders, and citizens can channel these impulses toward peace before more catastrophic thresholds are crossed. The US-Iran war is the most volatile and unpredictable conflict on earth right now, with the potential to reshape the entire Middle East and trigger a global energy shock. The Russia-Ukraine war is at a critical peace-or-collapse juncture, with the outcome of this week’s talks potentially determining whether millions more lives are lost. The Gaza ceasefire is fragile and at risk of collapse, while the region around it burns. Sudan continues to suffer in near-total obscurity, a reminder that the world’s attention — and moral outrage — remains deeply selective.
What unites all of these conflicts is the central tragedy of our age: that humanity has the knowledge, resources, and technology to build extraordinary things, and yet continues to choose destruction. The coming months will test whether diplomacy, deterrence, and international cooperation can still function — or whether we are entering a new era of permanent global conflict with consequences none of us can fully predict.