Jalandhar: The results of the Ludhiana West byelection hold a mirror to all parties, with only a year and a half left to the 2027 assembly elections. Though AAP won the seat by an improved margin compared to the 2022 assembly elections, there is a contrast in the way the party won it over three years ago, when it swept the state, and now, when the state govt had to put its continuous, intense focus on the seat for four months. For Punjab, it has been the norm since 2002 that the incumbent party wins the byelection. Apart from the might of the state government being behind its candidate, AAP’s Supremo, Arvind Kejriwal, also announced plans to make the newly elected MLA, Sanjeev Arora, a minister to ensure his victory. This promise was also a major vote-getter. A similar promise was made by CM Bhagwant Mann in the Jalandhar West bypoll, in which AAP got over 58% of the vote share. In Ludhiana West, the party’s vote share is around 39%. Though Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu sought to take solace in “giving a good fight and not allowing a walkover to the ruling party” and claimed that the party was united, factionalism in the Punjab Congress was not subtle during electioneering.
In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the state unit of the Congress had contested under a unified command. Demography also favoured it at the time, given the sliding graph of SAD leadership among Sikhs and Sikh apprehensions about the BJP. Afterwards, the Congress remained a divided house in Punjab and lacked imaginative politics, even as the ground situation in demanded so. During the 2022 assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it appeared to be contesting each seat separately, instead of working as a cohesive machine. Things have
not been different in the byelections. If, on one hand, Congress is facing a challenge from AAP, the BJP too can now dent its support base. A weak Akali Dal is working for Congress and AAP. These factors make it clear that senior Congress leaders’ confidence that their party would be the default choice could be misplaced.
The results also hold a mirror to Shiromani Akali Dal president Sukhbir Singh Badal. Though his party leaders and active supporters were projecting it as a four-cornered battle, the SAD candidate could not save his security deposit and remained short of touching a five-digit mark, even at a seat which the party was contesting when in alliance with the BJP. The result is significant even as SAD’s Parupkar Singh Ghuman was the only Sikh candidate in the fray, did not have any personal baggage, and SAD (Amritsar) also failed to get any traction. This indicates that a major section of the Sikh electorate, who make up a sizeable section in Ludhiana West, largely preferred AAP or Congress over the Akali Dal. BJP can take solace in the fact that it closely followed Congress, and its state president, Sunil Jakhar said the result reflected that the people were looking at the BJP as an alternative to Congress and AAP. However, in
comparison to the parliamentary election, its vote share is almost half.
Contrasting sides
AAP Supremo Arvind Kejriwal continues to reinvent his strategy and narratives, throwing surprises to other parties. After picking up a Rajya Sabha member as a candidate for the byelection, he never denied until the polling day the opposition’s claims that it was to clear his path to the Rajya Sabha. On Monday, he categorically said he was not going to the Upper House of Parliament. In contrast, Congress and SAD have been refusing to reinvent themselves or engage in imaginative politics. Mostly, they are in a reactionary mode, instead of coming
up with original ideas. Like AAP, only BJP has shown the capacity to go beyond old templates.