AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) has an advantage of incumbency and a solid track record in recent bypolls in Punjab. They’ve won 5 of the last 6 by-elections since 2022.
Their candidate, Harmeet Singh Sandhu, is a former MLA from Tarn Taran (three times) who switched to AAP recently. That gives him recognition, local connections, and perhaps votes based on his personal influence.
On the other hand, SAD (Shiromani Akali Dal) has put up Sukhwinder Kaur Randhawa, bolstered by the Azad Group joining them (sarpanches, councillors, etc.). That could pull votes from the grassroots.
Congress with Karanbir Singh Burj is also in the fray. Traditionally strong in some parts of the region, though they’ve slipped compared to AAP and SAD in recent bypolls.
Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) and affiliated panthic factions (like Amritpal Singh’s influence) may also affect vote splits, especially in rural areas.
🔮 My prediction
Given all that, I would lean toward AAP’s Harmeet Singh Sandhu being the frontrunner at this stage. His local profile + AAP’s recent electoral momentum give him a plausible edge.
That said, the split in Akali votes (between SAD, Waris Punjab De, etc.), and Congress’s ability to consolidate anti-incumbency (if present), could make it close or even tilt it against AAP.
As per the latest figures, the Tarn Taran Assembly constituency has around 1,95,098 registered voters in total — including male, female and third-gender electors.
If by “total votes” you meant the number of votes cast / voter turnout or valid votes in past elections, I can fetch that too — would you like me to check that?
In the 2022 Punjab Assembly election for Tarn Taran:
Electors (total registered voters): 1,98,439
Votes polled (turnout): 1,30,874 (≈ 65.95%)
Winner Dr. Kashmir Singh Sohal (AAP) got 52,935 votes total (EVM + postal)
Runner up Harmeet Singh Sandhu (then SAD) got 39,347 votes
Current (2025) voter numbers:
Total voters / electors in Tarn Taran: 1,95,098 (1,01,494 male; 92,240 female; 8 third gender)
In another report: 1,93,742 voters, of which 92,240 are female