In May 2025, Pakistan’s sudden call for a ceasefire with India surprised many observers. But behind the move lay a mix of domestic crises, regional tensions, military setbacks, and international pressure. Faced with a growing insurgency in Balochistan, a shaky economy, and India’s superior air power, Pakistan had little choice. China’s heavy investments in Balochistan’s infrastructure and a much-needed loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also played a role in pushing Pakistan towards de-escalation. This article explores the key reasons behind this strategic retreat.
1. Balochistan Insurgency and Military Overstretch
Pakistan’s military was already stretched thin by internal unrest when India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting Pakistani air bases. At the same time, the Balochistan insurgency escalated sharply. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked the Jaffar Express in March 2025, taking over 400 hostages. Other attacks on infrastructure projects and Chinese nationals exposed major weaknesses in Pakistan’s internal security.
According to Baloch leader Razzak Baloch, Pakistan had lost control over 80% of Balochistan. Any major conflict with India risked further weakening Islamabad’s hold over this restive region.
2. Unrest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)
While not as violent as Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) also showed signs of instability. Rising influence of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and local grievances fueled separatist sentiments in late 2024. With unrest in both KP and Balochistan, Pakistan needed to prioritize internal stability over an external war.
3. Economic Meltdown and Debt Crisis
Pakistan’s economy has been in deep trouble since 2022. Inflation surged, the currency weakened, and foreign debt piled up. Repayments to China for CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) projects alone were around $3–4 billion a year.
Attacks on CPEC infrastructure further scared away investors. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government was already struggling to govern effectively. Fighting a war with India in this situation was unaffordable.
4. India’s Air Superiority and Nuclear Risk
India’s Operation Sindoor demonstrated its advanced air power. In under 30 minutes, India struck 11 Pakistani air bases, including the rumored Kirana Hills nuclear site. Former Air Marshal Anil Chopra said the strikes “decimated terror camps in just 23 minutes,” proving India’s dominance in the skies.
Pakistan’s drone and fighter aircraft systems were badly hit, and fears of further escalation—including a nuclear conflict—forced Islamabad to pull back.
AI generated image to depict India’s air supremacy
5. U.S. Intervention and Geopolitical Pressure
The United States helped mediate the ceasefire. President Donald Trump confirmed the agreement. Washington was alarmed by the risk of nuclear escalation and also by India’s effective use of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system.
These developments worried the U.S., which wanted to avoid further Russian influence and display of its defense superiority. U.S. diplomatic pressure added to Pakistan’s reasons for backing off.
6. China’s CPEC Concerns and Balochistan Risks
China’s stakes in CPEC are massive—over $62 billion in investments. Most CPEC routes pass through Balochistan, connecting Xinjiang to Gwadar Port. But attacks by the BLA, including the killing of five Chinese engineers in 2024, put these investments at risk.
China sees Gwadar as a strategic port for its global trade. A continued war with India could endanger this asset. Reports suggest Chinese private security firms were deployed in Balochistan, and Beijing likely pressured Pakistan to focus on securing CPEC instead of engaging with India.
7. IMF Loan: Helping China Indirectly?
In April 2025, Pakistan secured a $7 billion loan from the IMF to stabilize its economy. However, economic experts like Dr. Ehtisham Ahmad of the London School of Economics noted that much of this money would go towards repaying Chinese debt. In effect, the IMF was indirectly supporting China’s Belt and Road investments.
While this gave Pakistan some breathing room, it also increased its dependency on foreign lenders and deepened China’s influence.
8. The “Republic of Balochistan” Goes Viral
On May 9, 2025, Baloch leader Mir Yar Baloch declared the formation of a “Republic of Balochistan.” The hashtag #RepublicOfBalochistan trended globally on X (formerly Twitter). Calls were made for India to host a Baloch embassy in New Delhi and for the UN to send peacekeepers—raising the diplomatic stakes for Pakistan.
9. What If India Recognized Balochistan?
Hypothetically, had India allowed a Baloch High Commission in New Delhi, Pakistan would have seen it as a serious threat to its sovereignty. It would have cut diplomatic ties and possibly backed insurgent groups in India. China, too, would have been alarmed, fearing that such a move would endanger its CPEC investments.
10. India’s Clear Military Edge
India’s superior military capabilities were on full display in 2025. The S-400 air defense system, swift precision strikes, and advanced intelligence exposed Pakistan’s weaknesses. Pakistan’s slow response to the Jaffar Express hijacking—where its elite Special Services Group took over 100 hours to act—further embarrassed the military leadership.
11. Pahalgam Attack: A Distraction That Backfired?
Some analysts believe Pakistan sponsored the Pahalgam terror attack to divert attention from Balochistan. But India’s harsh response—Operation Sindoor—only exposed Pakistan’s vulnerabilities further. The failure fueled domestic criticism of Army Chief General Asim Munir and made a ceasefire unavoidable.
12. Balochistan Crisis: Still Far from Over
The crisis continues to worsen. The Jaffar Express hijacking, the Quetta railway station bombing in November 2024, and the May 2025 attacks on 51 sites show growing coordination among Baloch rebels. Their main demands include independence and an end to what they call economic exploitation and human rights abuses. Without serious dialogue, the crisis is unlikely to end.
Conclusion: A Tactical Pause, Not a Lasting Peace
Pakistan’s ceasefire in May 2025 was not a sign of peace, but a forced pause—a way to regroup amid domestic chaos, military setbacks, and economic distress. The pressure from allies like China and the financial cushion from the IMF helped Islamabad buy time. But unless the root causes in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are addressed, the threat of future conflict remains high