The Ludhiana West Assembly bypoll, scheduled for June 19, 2025, is a critical electoral event that could redefine Punjab’s political landscape. This survey note provides a comprehensive analysis of the likely winner and the potential effects on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), based on past performances, current factors, and expert insights.
Historical Context and Past Performance
To understand the current contest, it is essential to examine the parties’ performances in Ludhiana West in recent elections:
2022 Assembly Elections: In the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, AAP’s Gurpreet Singh Gogi won the Ludhiana West seat, defeating Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a margin of 7,512 votes. This victory was part of AAP’s historic sweep, securing 92 out of 117 seats. Historical data shows that in 2017, Ashu won with 66,627 votes, while AAP’s candidate Ahbaab Singh Grewal polled 30,106 votes, indicating a significant surge in AAP’s vote share by 2022, reflecting its growing urban appeal.
2024 Lok Sabha Elections: The 2024 Lok Sabha elections presented a different picture. Congress’s Amrinder Singh Raja Warring won the Ludhiana Lok Sabha seat, defeating BJP’s Ravneet Singh Bittu by 20,942 votes. In the Ludhiana West assembly segment, Bittu secured 45,000 votes, a notable increase from 14,000 in 2019, showcasing BJP’s rising urban influence. Conversely, AAP’s performance in Ludhiana West dropped sharply, with only 2,157 votes, highlighting a decline in its national-level support in this constituency.
This historical analysis suggests that while AAP dominated in the 2022 Assembly polls, its support waned in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, whereas Congress retained strength in the broader Ludhiana seat, and BJP made significant inroads in urban areas.
Current Factors Influencing the Bypoll
Several contemporary factors are shaping the bypoll, each with potential to sway voter sentiment:
AAP’s Farmer Protest Stance: AAP’s recent action against protesting farmers at Shambu barrier, reportedly demanded by Ludhiana’s industrialists, could work in its favor. Ludhiana West, an urban constituency with a significant business community, may view this move positively, as it aligns with their economic interests. This factor could consolidate AAP’s urban support, especially given Arora’s industrialist background. This assertive stand and display of leadership is likely to favour AAP in this business dominated constituency.
Congress Internal Conflicts: The Congress campaign has been marred by internal strife, particularly between state president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu. Reports indicate Warring’s and many other leaders’ absence from campaign events and their perceived opposition to Ashu and Rana Gurjeet Singh, who is the campaign incharge, creating visible divisions. This discord could weaken Congress’s prospects, as highlighted in a recent article from The Tribune, which noted the need for the party to address internal rivalry to mount a cohesive challenge in future elections.
BJP’s Rising Urban Influence: BJP, though unlikely to win, has shown growing strength in urban Ludhiana. Bittu’s 45,000 votes in Ludhiana West during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections reflect its appeal among the Hindu business community. While BJP may not secure victory, it could split votes between AAP and Congress, potentially benefiting the former, as noted in another Tribune article discussing the triangular contest.
SAD’s Weakened Position: SAD, once a dominant force, is struggling post its 2020 split with BJP. The satta bazaar offers the highest returns on SAD’s candidate, Paropkar Singh Ghumman, indicating low chances of winning. An interview with Sunil Jakhar in The Indian Express suggested that SAD’s decline could fuel radicalism if it continues to disintegrate, underscoring its precarious position.
Satta Bazaar Trends: The betting market, as reported in The Tribune, strongly favors AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora, with the lowest returns on his victory. This trend, peaking in Ludhiana’s betting, suggests confidence in AAP’s organizational strength and Arora’s candidacy, further supported by high-profile campaigns from Kejriwal and Mann.
Detailed Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Given these factors, the likely winner and the implications for each party are as follows:
Likely Winner: Research suggests AAP is likely to win, given its 2022 victory, favorable satta bazaar trends, and support from industrialists. The party’s recent move against farmers, aligning with Ludhiana’s business interests, could further bolster its urban support. Opinion polls, as mentioned in news reports, show AAP leading with 36.23% support compared to Congress’s 24.31%, reinforcing this likelihood.
Impact on AAP: If AAP wins, it could have significant national implications. Sanjeev Arora’s victory might pave the way for Arvind Kejriwal to move to the Rajya Sabha, utilizing the seat vacated by Arora. This would strengthen AAP’s parliamentary presence under Kejriwal’s leadership, potentially rejuvenating its national prospects after setbacks in Delhi. Within the INDIA Alliance, AAP could take the front seat, overshadowing Congress, altering opposition dynamics. AAP has double digit MPs both in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha which under direct leadership of Arvind Kejriwal would give it a fresh lifeline.
Impact on Congress: A Congress win, would be a morale booster, especially for 2027 elections. It would elevate Rana Gurjeet, the campaign incharge, as a key leader, adding another face to the party’s many potential chief ministerial candidates for 2027, as noted in campaign reports. A victory would impact Raja Warring’s leadership, whose opposition to Ashu, as perceived by electorate and seen in campaign materials, could be perceived as contrary leadership, potentially weakening party unity and affecting future contests. Because “Politics is a game of perception”.
Major political realignment within Congress would emerge surrounding Charanjit Singh Channi and Rana Gurjeet Singh if it is able to win this contest and also pave way for its 2027 victory. Even the “margin” of victory will be interesting to observe.
A very less margin of loss will embolden Congress with a natural excuse of “misuse of official machinery”.
Impact on BJP: While BJP is unlikely to win, its rising urban vote, evident from 45,000 votes in 2024, could position it as a significant player in future urban contests. Its win will further display the intelligence of voters to align the State with the Centre for overall development and give a totally new direction to the Punjab Politics paving way for a hung assembly in 2027, permanently swaying Hindu voter away from Congress, its strong forte. A strong show in terms of vote share might encourage further expansion, challenging AAP and Congress’ dominance, but a loss would highlight its reliance on alliances. Its win, loss and vote percentage could also become a bargaining point for seat sharing with SAD, if it happens for 2027.
Impact on SAD: SAD’s chances appear weak, with high betting returns indicating low probability. A loss could confirm its decline, potentially erasing its national relevance, as Jakhar warned, and fueling radicalism concerns. However, a surprise win, though unlikely, could revive its rural and Sikh voter base, offering a lifeline.
Conclusion
The Ludhiana West bypoll is a microcosm of Punjab’s evolving political dynamics. AAP appears poised to retain the seat, leveraging its 2022 victory, industrialist support, and favorable betting trends. However, Congress’s internal conflicts and BJP’s rising urban influence add layers of complexity. The results, due on June 23, will not only decide the fate of Ludhiana West but also signal the direction of Punjab’s politics, with national implications for AAP’s resurgence and realignment within Congress giving further rise to Congress’s leadership struggles.