With the election just days away and voters souring on President Trump’s deportation hysteria, this midterm is set to be a referendum on the Republican Party’s failed policies. But how important is immigration to voters, really? What do voters want to see in immigration policy? Do voters trust ICE to responsibly and humanely manage immigration enforcement?
My colleague at American University, immigration sociologist Ernesto Castañeda and founder of the Immigration Lab, joined me to talk about a new poll that does what few other polls do: dig into the nitty-gritty details of voters’ views on immigration. Ernesto is one of the most curious and prolific academics I know, squarely rooting his work in public impact. He frequently coauthors books with collaborators, including Global Pathways to Becoming New Americans, Migration and Migration Status, and Reunited: Family Separation and Central American Youth Migration. This poll reflects that same commitment to putting careful research in front of the public when it can make a difference.
It will not surprise you to know that the poll found large disapproval rates for the president’s handling of the immigration issue, but a sizable contingent of Americans still believes in these policies a reminder that if everyone inside of your digital and social bubble doesn’t like what’s happening, it might not reflect the full spectrum of views.
Ernesto and I talked at length about the poll’s findings that voters hold more nuanced views of immigration than we often give them credit for. Voters do not view immigrants as a uniform bloc; their level of support for deportation varies based on sympathetic factors such as whether they are working to regularize their status or pursuing humanitarian protection. This doesn’t necessarily mean that voters have an accurate or consistent view of what these things mean, or the fact that, for many immigrants, there simply is no pathway available for bureaucratic reasons beyond their control. Nevertheless, there is at least some growing awareness of the various forms of protection like asylum and TPS that few voters were even aware of about a decade ago.
Ernesto emphasized that this poll shows that politicians, especially Democrats who may have a shot at some reforms in the coming years, should not be afraid of the immigration issue. Immigration is not a losing issue. There remains deep anxiety over repeating the Biden administration’s immigration policies based on a view that Democrats lost the 2024 election because of immigration, but Ernesto isn’t so sure that the data bear this out. Rather, politicians have the opportunity to champion real change boldly with the knowledge that voters are not going to punish them for taking a stand.
Relatedly, much has been written about the impact of immigration enforcement and mass deportation on the economy. That’s an important argument, to be sure. But (and this isn’t the first time I’ve seen this) the data don’t quite bear out the idea that voters are solely self-interested economic actors. The biggest concern people have right now with how our immigration laws are being enforced comes down to moral and ethical concerns over family separation, harm to immigrants themselves, and the lack of humane options for leaving the country.
I’m not really a polling data kind of person, so I found this conversation educational and enlightening and I think you will, too. Huge thanks to Ernesto for joining me and to the audience who tossed us great questions and comments throughout.